Seasonal evaluation of rainfall estimation by four cumulus parameterization schemes and their sensitivity analysis     

Asnor Muizan Ishak  Michaela Bray  Renji Remesan  Dawei Han 《水文研究》2012,26(7):1062-1078

Sustainable water resources management require scientifically sound information on precipitation, as it plays a key role in hydrological responses in a catchment. In recent years, mesoscale weather models in conjunction with hydrological models have gained great attention as they can provide high‐resolution downscaled weather variables. Many cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) have been developed and incorporated into three‐dimensional Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model 5 (MM5). This study has performed a comprehensive evaluation of four CPSs (the Anthes–Kuo, Grell, Betts–Miller and Kain–Fritsch93 schemes) to identify how their inclusion influences the mesoscale model's precipitation estimation capabilities. The study has also compared these four CPSs in terms of variability in rainfall estimation at various horizontal and vertical levels. For this purpose, the MM5 was nested down to resolution of 81 km for Domain 1 (domain span 21 × 81 km) and 3 km for Domain 4 (domain span 16 × 3 km), respectively, with vertical resolutions at 23, 40 and 53 vertical levels. The study was carried out at the Brue catchment in Southwest England using both the ERA‐40 reanalysis data and the land‐based observation data. The performances of four CPs were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the amount of cumulative rainfall in 4 months in 1995 representing the four seasonal months, namely, January (winter), March (spring), July (summer) and October (autumn). It is observed that the Anthes–Kuo scheme has produced inferior precipitation values during spring and autumn seasons while simulations during winter and summer were consistently good. The Betts–Miller scheme has produced some reasonable results, particularly at the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) during winter and summer. The KF2 scheme was the best scheme for the larger‐scale (81 km grid size) domain during winter season at both 23 and 53 vertical levels. This scheme tended to underestimate rainfall for other seasons including the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) in the mesoscale. The Grell scheme was the best scheme in simulating rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to other three schemes with consistently better results in all four seasons and in different domain scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A survey of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations     

P. E. Kloeden  E. Platen 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1989,3(3):155-178

The development of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations has intensified over the past decade. The earliest methods were usually heuristic adaptations of deterministic methods, but were found to have limited accuracy regardless of the order of the original scheme. A stochastic counterpart of the Taylor formula now provides a framework for the systematic investigation of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations. It suggests numerical schemes, which involve multiple stochastic integrals, of higher order of convergence. We shall survey the literature on these and on the earlier schemes in this paper. Our discussion will focus on diffusion processes, but we shall also indicate the extensions needed to handle processes with jump components. In particular, we shall classify the schemes according to strong or weak convergence criteria, depending on whether the approximation of the sample paths or of the probability distribution is of main interest.  相似文献   

长江流域旱涝典型年大气水汽输送   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

高国栋  翟盘茂 《水科学进展》1993,4(1):10-16

利用我国125个探空站一日两次自地面至100hpa共11个层次上的观测资料,对长江流域典型夏涝年(1980年)和夏旱年(1985年)我国大气中水汽总输送场、涡动输送场及散度场进行了计算分析。结果表明:当水汽总输送场从西北、西南和东南三支气流携带的水汽交汇于长江流域,且整个水汽输送场稳定持久,则在水汽辐合带附近导致大量降水,形成洪涝;反之,当三支气流微弱不稳定,不能形成水汽辐合带条件,则形成干旱。涡动输送亦反映出类似的特征。稳定且强盛的西南气流水汽输送是形成降水的主要条件和原因。  相似文献   

东北地形对强对流天气影响的分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王晓明  谢静芳 《地理科学》1994,14(4):347-354

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ADVANCES IN APPLIED RESEARCH OF THE OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION IN CHINA          下载免费PDF全文

Jiang Shangcheng 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1993,7(3):367-380

The outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)observed by NOAA satellite series has widely applied in various researchfields since the 1980s in China.In this paper,advances of the applied research of OLR are described in the following re-spects:(1)Studies of the global ITCZ;(2)Climatology of the subtropical high over northern Pacific;(3)Studies of the tropical cyclone over West Pacific;(4)Characteristics of the intraseasonal variation(ISV)of tropical convective activities;(5)Divergence wind and large scale circulation over the tropics;(6)Studies of the air-sea interaction;(7)Estimation of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and the Yangtze River(Changjiang River)basin during therainy season;(8)Analyses of regional climates of China;(9)Studies of prediction of the severe and disastrous weather and climate;(10)Atlas of OLR.The distinctive features of these advances are reviewed and the focal points of the OLR applied research in futureare also suggested.  相似文献   

9012台风倒槽结构与暴雨中尺度系统          下载免费PDF全文

楼茂园 《气象》1993,19(3):7-12

利用高空资料、地面资料和红外卫星云图资料,对发生在浙江中北部的9012台风倒槽暴雨的机制进行分析,揭示了该台风倒槽的结构和暴雨的环境场。并进一步研究了产生暴雨的中尺度暴雨云团及其周围的垂直气流分布与地面降水的对应关系。对暴雨云团所对应的高、中、低(地面)层系统亦进行了分析。  相似文献   

加利福尼亚弧-盆-沟体系的地质特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陆克政  王亨君 《地球科学》1994,3(6)

加利福尼亚中生代弧-盆-沟系的构造和演化模式一向为世人所重视。作者应邀有机会对加州内华达岛弧地块、弗兰西斯科杂岩和大谷弧前盆地进行了实地地质考察。本文仅就这3个岩性-构造单元的一些独特地质特征和地质景观作一简介。  相似文献   

8807号台风局地特大暴雨过程中尺度分析     

徐文金 《南京气象学院学报》1995,18(2):242-247

分析了８８０７号台风所引发的局地特大暴雨成因：（１）台风提供了足够的水汽；（２）台风螺旋状云雨区和太阳辐射不均匀，形成了低层中尺度锋区，为暴雨发生提供极不稳定能量和触发条件；（３）局地地形和摩擦因子使湖北省宜昌地区成为这次对流云发展较有利的地点；（４）高空的中尺度降压系统和涡度因子加强了对流云团的发展。  相似文献   

THE ROLES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DYNAMICS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION          下载免费PDF全文

巢纪平  林永辉  王斌 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1995,(2)

In this paper,a tropical atmospheric model of relevance to shorts-term climate variations(Wang and Li 1993)is util-ized for study of the development of Madden-Julian oscillation.The model contains an interactive process ofboundary-layer Ekman convergence and precipitation heating.The model is solved by expanding dependent variables interms of parabolic cylindrical functions in the meridional direction and truncating three meridional modes n=0,2,4 forequatorial symmetric solutions.The free wave solutions obtained under long-wave approximation are induced as aKelvin wave and two Rossby waves.After considering the effect of boundary-layer dynamic process,the modifiedKelvin wave becomes unstable in long-wave bands with a typical growth rate on an order of 10~(-6) s~(-1)and an eastwardphase speed of 10 m s~(-1);the most unstable mode is wavenumber one.These theoretical results are consistent with the ob-served Madden-Julian oscillation in equatorial area.For the two modified Rossby waves,one with a smaller meridionalscale(n=4)decays except for extra long-waves;the other with a larger meridional scale(n=2)grows in short-wavebands.This may be relevant to explaining the westward propagation of super cloud clusters in the Madden-Julianoscillation.The theory suggests that the boundary-layer dynamic process is an important mechanism in the develop-ment of the Madden-Julian oscillation.  相似文献   

A CASE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EVOLVING INTO A VORTEX   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陶祖钰  王洪庆  白洁  朱文琴  石定朴  杨红梅 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1995,(2)

A case of mesoscale convective complex(MCC)which evolved into a vortex is documented in this paper.As theMCC entered into the dissipating phase,a well-defined spirally banded structure became visible in the satellite image.The blackbody temperature(TBB)of the residual cold-cloud-shield indicates the vortex existed in the layer from 400 to250 hPa.According to the upper air analysis,the upper level vortex was an anticyclone.The MCC-generated vortex wasvisualized in the satellite images because it was located in the subtropical high where the wind field was very weak.  相似文献